The fund manager reviewing stocks investment logic

Traditional and emerging mutual game time, the fund manager investment logic also become abnormal ravel. Some funds reassortment industry in brief glory, immediately after the mess up, some stocks obtained in dominant market position face after the subsequent growth weak embarrassed; It also makes the fund manager to rethink the most simple logic: trees can grow up to day. This seems to also explains market chase after hold in both hands high valuations technology stocks understandable.
Behind the glory
Whether the fund manager or retail investors, investment logic seems to be always based on a from small to large, from weak to strong, from ignore to attention, from the humble to the process of glory. But when the investment industry or stocks become a market focus is the giant, honor is what?
"Industry initial is often own industry stock rises the biggest period." The Great Wall JingShun investment deputy director ChenHui think including wind power in many industries proved this phenomenon, once a industry starts to become profitable, a large number of capital will be poured into this industry, low price competition begins, the industry's stock began into decline, although the wind power industry is China take the shots. ChenHui think that wind power industry have been transformed into a traditional industry, the wind power industry and therefore appeared valuation regression.
Wind power industry performance, stock performance also explained the market problems, be refreshed by the science and technology, sinovel wind power both three quarterly report performance is expected to decline sharply. The first three quarters of this year is expected to be refreshed by the science and technology than the same period in previous years net profit fell more than 50% above, be refreshed by the science and technology's share price since the end of 2010 to all the way down, only in this year fell 22%, and in September this year the jinfeng technology below 2008 financial crisis rock-bottom price. In fact actively managed funds also in the second quarter of this year from all wind power stocks top ten list of tradable shares.
Institutional investors see light wind power industry another logic is the industry in China has large enough, even in the world is also ranked the top, to continue upward space is very small. Data show that by the end of August this year, the national power grid scheduling range parallel in wind power up to 50.26 million kw, six years at an average rate of 87%. The state grid has become a global wind power the largest power grid, China has already overtaken the United States as the world's first big wind power. But wind large-scale construction and become the world's largest wind power country is behind the serious surplus production capacity, the subsequent development of space, and when the wind power to become the world the first, including be refreshed by the science and technology, sinovel wind power and the stock of the company also appear serious callback.
And the wind power logic similar seem to have banking, engineering machinery industry. Served as Goldman sachs Asia director general manager's DengTiShun accept "Shanghai securities news interview points out, although the A shares of the bank plate p/e ratio in A very low level, but the bank shares is not appropriate, valuable investment target.
"We note that the global banking market value rankings, the top ten Chinese Banks in up almost half, China banking is the world first, will also have much space." DengTiShun also talked about citigroup as the world's largest market value after the bank the pain, in 2008 financial crisis, the citigroup shares fell more than 90%.
With the banking industry situation roughly similar is, data showed that global engineering machinery industry rankings, top ten engineering machinery company has three companies from China, including the sany, zoomlion, xugong. Construction machinery industry downturn's share price performance may also reflect investors for the industry development space up doubts, only the rich fund in the second quarter of this year to reduce their holdings of sany more than 42 million shares.
Leading troubles
Fund managers notice another logic is that trees can't long heaven, and small sapling but there are plenty of imagination, When certain industries gradually development of mature, become the generally recognized by the investors "white horse shares", this kind of variety has also been market mining more fully.
"Reflect specific variety, not leading will have more value, sometimes the second and the third name may be more games." ChenHui think market tend to give leading varieties more expected, once the main item stock failed to achieve the expectations or be competitors take a share, market for this kind of bad reaction will often beyond imagination, while the second and the third leading even take a share will be magnified indefinitely market expectations, thus in the share price factual than leading.
China mobile, China unicom, such as huawei, zte telecom software and hardware bibcock also faced two big problem, not only this kind of enterprise obtain industry leading position to continue growth after the problem, is facing the industry in the world has a large market share space after the development of the problem.
Because have already obtained higher market share and user permeability, DengTiShun straightforward look pale telecom industry investment opportunities. Deng body consequent "Shanghai securities news pointed out that China mobile's interim results have shown new user number slowing sharply the phenomenon," because permeability from 1% to 50% of the time each year, a 50% increase. But the permeability have 70%, 80%, 1% ~ 5% growth rate can have good ".
A shares in the telecommunications industry equipment variety has shown that earnings growth of fatigue phenomenon. Zte last week before the disclosure of the third quarter performance decline caused by as much as 254% share price drop stop, the same plate dafu technology also drop stop closing, dafu technology is expected to the third quarter net profit losses at around 40 million, net profit fell more than 100%. Meanwhile, the main communications products holding auditions for October 13 disclosure performance greatly loss share prices collapse, shenzhen publicly traded data also reveal that the fund as a representative of institutional investors holding auditions appeared last week in the sale of the seats.
"Behind industry" opportunity
Compared to those in the world, in the national economy and achieve its status of the industry, fund managers prefer some is still in the initial stage and lags behind that of developed countries industry.
DengTiShun believe that the future of investment opportunity lies mainly in the domestic those emerging growth areas, in medicine, science, technology, culture and other industries around the world the first ten big capitalization company, China currently lags behind. "In the rigid demand support, the whole pharmaceutical industry income sustained and stable growth" when rich healthcare fund manager LiQuan - told reporters, as enterprises strengthen the innovation, the adjustment variety "