Cofco futures: after a long holiday zheng cotton first after suppression Yang lack of staying power

Cofco futures scarlett
Market trend review
11 after the holidays, the domestic cotton spot prices remained stable small rising trend, mainly by the domestic collection and storage support. By last Friday, CCindex328 index 11 were rising after 21 yuan/ton, or 0.11%.
Zheng cotton futures rose by outside dish driving, more modest. By last Friday, zheng cotton futures main contract settlement price increase 265 yuan/ton, or 1.36%.
International cotton (19585,10.00, 0.05%) comprehensive quotation and external cotton China main port by outside dish futures price rose driven, and fell before the trend to rise. CotLookA index rose 5.57%, and FCIndex M index rose 2.95%.
ICE period cotton rise considerably, after eleven last Friday by a total of 7.11% rise. International news says because of the latest week American cotton export weekly data is very optimistic about the good news of the hype.
Before because of the cotton spot price by ICE period of cotton stimulation also rise considerably, and the domestic MianJia remains modest rise, so MianJia difference inside and outside narrowed, down 379 yuan/ton, the decline range 7.7%. Even so, the price is in 4540 such a high level. Domestic MianJia keep more likely to continue to rise, and cotton variable is bigger, therefore the price there is likely to be late again may expand.
After 11 domestic base difference weakness, by - 780 weakness to - 1024, a weaker 244 by 31.28%. Mainly because zheng cotton futures affects obviously by outside dish, follow outside dish rises to be bigger than the spot price. At present base difference at a low level, but keep in the normal range.
After eleven zheng cotton futures contract price far and near month was basically in a downward trend, last week without breaking up after 0, continue downward, from the current technical level to see, at present this fuchsia phenomenon may continue to continue.
Collection and storage progress
After eleven, domestic accept reserves remain stable growth. By the end of last Friday, the actual into reserves of 1.15 million tons, hand in a store proportion is 57%, among them XinJiangMian into reserves of 900000 tons, accounting for 78.6%. From September start late, the reserves suddenly soar measures, before mainly because showed is not a large number of listed, and processing enterprises processing showed it is certain to should have cycle, with a large number of listed showed, hand in a store enterprise dramatically since October, surrender quantity has also grown dramatically. Now every plan collection and storage general maintained at 10000 tons, hand in storage ratio are in more than 60%, most of them for XinJiangMian, accounting for more than 70%, mainly because of this year XinJiangMian quality is generally the mainland high, some mainland cotton traders also to xinjiang to purchase.
Collection and storage smoothly to domestic MianJia will continue to maintain a more powerful support, which will promote the domestic MianJia continued to rise. But for processing enterprise cotton generally used to pay store, if according to pay store price sell to the downstream textile mill, even with high tariffs imported cotton outside compared also no advantage, therefore the domestic cotton spot market basic in a price no city state.
Seed cotton purchase market
Seed cotton price steadily downward trend, mainly because the current price makes cotton processing enterprise profit is too low, so the intention to purchase is also very low, as long as to cotton enterprises can accept psychological price, it can clinch a deal. If according to China's current cotton seed cotton association issued reference price to calculate words, at present MianJia processing cost remains high, Texas and other regions in 20000 yuan of above, cotton enterprises into words if reservoir profits less than 400 yuan. So late seed cotton purchasing price may have a decreased, but the national policy for the protection, the decline range is not too large.
Conclusion: from the current situation look, zheng cotton rise power shortage, the biggest obstacles or fundamental weak demand. One factor that makes zheng cotton cannot in the collection and storage policy under good rise smoothly. Collection and storage of the rapid propulsion although not enough to drive the zheng cotton smooth rise, but to the domestic spot price is a kind of a solid guarantee. Late zheng cotton more likely to keep concussion.