Cass: this year is expected to GDP growth by 7.7% to 8.2% next year

In 2012 is expected to name the social fixed assets investment growth 20.4%, year-on-year fall 2.7%;

In 2012 is expected to retail sales in nominal growth 14.4%, year-on-year fall 2.7%;

It is estimated that our import and export growth rate were 6.0% and 7.9%, 18.9% and 12.4% respectively compared to the back

⊙ reporter QinFeiFei

The Chinese academy of 12 issued by the China's economic situation analysis and prediction, fall 2012 report is expected by the debt crisis and the world economic slowdown in influence, in 2012, exports and industrial growth dropped significantly, annual growth will also have apparent more than the previous year, the GDP is expected to increase by about 7.7%, compared with a drop of 1.6% growth.

The number of academy of the deputy director LiXueSong (micro Po) representative research report introduced that next year is expected to China's economy will achieve smooth moderate growth, GDP growth will reach 8.2%, higher than this year. At the same time, must to our country economy may face the risk of descending vigilant, keep enough policy flexibility and policy reserves, in response to the international economic possible downside risks.

GDP growth expected no differences

For annual GDP growth speed, the expert's viewpoint basic no differences. The state council development research center academic committee deputy secretary general ZhangLiQun think, this year's economic growth will be stable between 7% and 8%.

The state information center forecast, deputy director of the ZhuBaoLiang also think, in 2012 GDP growth at 7.7%, 7.8% or so, next year can reach 8.0%.

"Although the present economic growth weak, but on the whole or the right." ZhuBaoLiang said, from the current population structure factors perspective, the current rate may be China's economic growth potential, and this is why this under the growth of employment, etc but no problems.

The most obvious by foreign trade

LiXueSong pointed out that in stimulate economic "troika", the investment and consumption basic maintained a steady and fast growth, both nominal growth although all have fell slightly, but the actual growth than the same period last year increased slightly. Only foreign trade appeared more significantly reduced. So cass autumn report only for economic growth and foreign trade some cut, the investment and consumption basic maintain spring forecast data.

LiXueSong said that in real estate investment growth decline, infrastructure project examination and approval to speed up the comprehensive factors such as the influence, in 2012 is expected to name the social fixed assets investment growth 20.4%, more than the previous year growth dropped 3.2%; The actual growth 17.1%, more than the previous year growth increased by 1.2%, and continue to maintain steady and fast growth.

In the consumer, considering that began in 2010 consumption stimulus policy exit and newly published this year a number of new consumption stimulus policy, in 2012 is expected to retail sales in nominal growth 14.4%, growth than last year dropped 2.7%; After deducting the price factor, the actual growth 11.9%, growth 0.2% higher than last year, continue to maintain steady growth.

See from the report, the decline range the largest is the import and export. By the debt crisis constantly repeated, developed countries economic differentiation intensifies, most emerging market countries economic growth slowed or maintain the impact of factors such as the low operation, China's foreign trade growth will fall sharply. Report is expected that the whole year our country import and export growth rate were 6.0% and 7.9% respectively, with the highest growth rate compared with last year fell 18.9 and 12.4% respectively.

Next year or slightly higher than GDP growth this year

For 2013 years of economic situation, is expected to academy, GDP growth will reach 8.2%, higher than this year. This judgment got the vast majority of the people approved of.

WangWenBo think, next year the economy is difficult to appear obviously improved, even if growth has picks up, also is very limited, and it is relatively low speed growth trend. He analysis, from the international economic situation to see next year, it is difficult to have the big change, if not appear now improved significantly affect China's foreign trade. In addition, the domestic private investment enthusiasm is not high, Outstanding excess capacity contradictions may also be a long-term problem.

"I am optimistic about next year." ZhangHanYa take such judgment. He said, after the us election, economy may have change; The European economy is not continue to deteriorate signs; China is still in the actively explore emerging markets, so foreign trade may have better. In addition, the domestic "1025" planning is still in implementation, countries in monetary policy also and space. He predicts that GDP growth next year is 8% - 9%, the overall trend this year than good.

Policy Suggestions, LiXueSong said, the current processing good steady growth, adjustable structure, grasp the key to such reform is to be firm growth in a more important position. Continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy. 2013 years should be appropriate to expand deficit scale, continue to the structural tax reduction as the implementation of active fiscal policy center of gravity.