2012年10月24日星期三

Her beautiful international: alert market risk aversion to come


Recently the United States in the third quarter earnings enterprises, large enterprises performance generally less than market expectations, enterprise profitability decline, chemical enterprise giant dupont announced third quarter earnings decline, cut annual earnings expectations and layoffs, days shares fell more than 8%, at the same time, apple issued by the company Mini iPad don't win market recognition, in Mini iPad after releasing, apple shares fell sharply, fell more than 3% in the third quarter and xerox company net profit fell 12%, 3 m company net profit rose but product sales decline, UPS express third quarter net profit fell sharply by 56%, resulting in European and us equity markets are falling, market risk aversion breeding.
The latest official figures showed that the eurozone debt (not including contingent liabilities, they have only in specific time will be taken into account range) for the proportion of GDP in 2011 hit a record high, up to 87.3%, and in 2010 the proportion is 85.4%. At the same time, published and Greece in 2011 the government debt to GDP from 165.3% correction is 170.6%, although the debt crisis to ease, but the eurozone country debt situation is not optimistic, this will be the euro's rise potential pressure.
The United States congress in considering a targeted stronger cut spending plan, using it to replace the next year on January 2, 109 billion dollars in order to comprehensively "financial cliff" consequences, this transitional method may include increased income at the same time in the next year 1-6 month cut costs about $50 billion, and the concrete cut spending what scheme selected by the congress, and increasing the income of ways including plugging some let enterprise or the rich can be given a chance to produce virtually anything tax "holes".
The euro/dollar analysis
From the day diagram to look, the price trend in a wide range, above in the near 1.3130 by resistance, below the lowest price dip to 1.2800, with the recent market risk emotional warming, suggest to meet high do empty is given priority to, days attention 1.2990 price below can empty single approach, or the price is expected to callback to near 1.3023, above resistance interal 1.3000-1.3012, 1.2953, 1.2895 below support.
GBP/usd analysis
The bank of England governor king says if recent British economy positive signs fade, so the central bank will be prepared to take further stimulus measures to promote economic growth, but the dollar pounds (1.6007, 0.0057, 0.36%) in the market risk preference emotional decline came down, the minimum fell to 1.5977 nearby, the current price appears small rebound trend, but the whole, the price is still in a downward trend in, MACD indicators in 0 axis lower part, empty square energy column increase, and at the same time, all line is also present a bear arrangement situation, display days weaker prices, radical short term guest do much, target 1.5970, then can empty single approach.
U.S. dollar/yen analysis
Against the yen, the dollar (79.77, 0.0900, 0.11%) in the near 80.0 back correction, below support focus on previous high 79.65, 79.30, from hour chart to look, the price rise in operation channel rail below, above resistance is 79.91, 80.00, if the market outlook below 79.65 support, down the target downward to 79.30, temporary price high small concussion, the price in the near 79.75 by the support, focus on the price, if below, the price will appear callback trend, after the callback can do more than in the low post.
Australian dollars/dollar analysis
Australia announced third quarter consumer price index 2%, higher than expected and the former value and China published HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers' index preview value record 49.1, higher than the previous value 47.9, the price by this bad data influence rose, but the price in the near 1.0317 under pressure fall; According to the credit suisse data, the market now expect Macao ChuHang November 6 discussion meeting interest rates by 25 basis points to 78% the possibility of, the future one year will be 80 basis points rate cut, the bad influence, the dollar $(1.0326, 0.0060, 0.58%) overall in the downward trend in, days with Suggestions on high do empty is given priority to, 1.0260 below target.
U.S. dollar/billion analysis: Canada October central bank interest rate decision maintain 1.0% the same, still said interest rates may, leading to c $dollar (0.9904, 0.0018, 0.18%) quick diving, price downward to rising near 0.9899, after prices in the near 0.9915 by the support, days after the price 低做, target 0.9950, stop a previous low.


Sina statement: sina published this article for the purpose of information, does not mean that agree with his point of view or confirm its description. The contents of the article for reference only, does not constitute investment advice. Investors according to operation, risks oneself.