China and securities: the market short-term will still repeated

From currency factors to observe the recent economic performance, currency changes is mainly embodied in the initial funding of foreign exchange to improve is change, and the change of way that part of the financing channels to strengthen, is still not monetary demand improvement, which decides the is still "continue" rather than "new start", the production structure of the liquidation will still, despite a repeated. This week, we discussed the production process of structural changes in capital equipment and labor replaces each other appear stage, thus corresponding future opportunities appear an Angle. In the market, recent still pay attention to price signals, prices fell again will be new negative impact, waiting for the middle of watershed then entered into after chance opportunity, last week combination run win csi 300 index 0.88% this week, a combination of adjustment.
1, stage for improving the original structure of the extension. From the Angle of currency understand the recent economic situation change, social financing amount for the first time in more than two years become a full member play an important role, including outstanding performance for part of the financing channels of strengthening, mainly for the corporate bond financing and trust financing, this may be all growth targets in order to take various measures and test results, this kind of change for the short-term monetary conditions improved, but also means persistent not very long, such as QiYeZhai financing cost in 07 years prosperity period level. External is behaved for export to improve and QE influence, embodied in the increase of the funding of foreign exchange. Synthetic judgment such improve still belong to at the beginning of the year to supply improvement, including initial funding of the improvement of foreign exchange is change, and the change of way that part of the financing channels to strengthen, is still not monetary demand improvement, which decides the is still "continue" rather than "new start", this means that for production structure of the liquidation will still, despite a repeated.
2, divide new stage may features: one. From the fourth quarter, we discuss the characteristics of the second half of the liquidation, the first is waiting for confirmation of watershed economy, i.e. relative's weak economy and gradually differentiation company, it will be one of the sources of opportunity. This week we'll discuss this stage the possibility of future another chance, that is, different cycle phase of elements flow change opportunity, especially enterprise for labor and equipment choice between opportunities brought, never to see, as the economy into the bottom hovering stage, labor actual price because the viscidity of the salary may be in a higher level, thus gradually appear a capital equipment replacement labor phenomenon, this will bring a investment opportunities, this depends on into our in 4 quarterly report mentioned in the watershed of the stage.
3, market: pay attention to price signals, waiting to enter watershed. Recent market main differences may come from three aspects namely economic trend judgment and the corresponding inventory cycle whether smooth expansion, event sexual factors and market structural factors interpretation, we judge economic short-term improving mainly for the currency improve bring, is still after the extension of structure, have yet to see currency falling demand, not chance in the middle of the opportunity, it is suggested that the key tracking price performance, prices fell again will be negative impact factors, then probably into our strategy in the quarter to discuss the watershed of the new stage, the present is likely in the middle of the opportunity.