October HSBC PMI initial value innovation high economy picking up more can stay

【 financial net feature 】 reporter 鲍喆 October HSBC manufacturing PMI initial value of 49.1, a September 47.9 picks up 1.2 points and hit a record high since three months, the market on the economy, demand stabilises milder have more confidence.
HSBC China chief economist and economic research Asia Pacific joint competent QuHongBin (micro Po) in micro bo to October subentry index on the disclosure - new orders index contraction amplitude narrow, from September to October 47.3 49.7, for six months highs. New export orders 47.3 (September 44.9), for five months highs. Manufactured inventory adjustment obviously. As a result, the output index 48.4 (September 47.3), still in shrink interval. The employment index for eight months in under 50; Through the new order fg inventory reduction measure of growth index back up to a year high 1.8 (September 2.9), before the end of the five months of continuous negative record. Inputs and output product price index both back to expansion interval. The former from September to October 43.4 53.3, the latter for 50.6. Despite a rebound, October price index is still less than the data series of long-term average (58.4 and 52.4, respectively).
QuHongBin think, new orders index rebound, HSBC manufacturing PMI in purchasing price index rebounded means that CPI and PPI already close to the bottom, recent cement and steel (3679,5.00, 0.14%) prices have rebounded. The fourth quarter is expected to price index may rise modestly. Even so, output gap still is negative, food prices relative stationary decided the inflation pressure mild controlled.
On the demand side, combined with medium (between macro and micro data between enterprise data industry data) data, domestic demand has begun to appear signs of warmer.
Zhejiang merchants securities macroscopic analysts GuoLei think, from medium have data can see demand picks up the clue, including crude steel, cement, asphalt and other areas of quantity price change, and the port container data recovery. The economy has the initiative to inventory and class a recession into passive to inventory and class FuSuQi, so macroscopic level of data transfer is a logical trend.
However, although October new export orders index hit a high five months, but the future is still difficult to the expect too much. Global trade conditions to improve the synchronous drive the Asian exports of synchronous picks up, from September export data can see China Taiwan, Korea, Vietnam, are synchronous sharply rebounded, beyond the seasonal. It is proved that the export picks up and the reason of China's concern is not big. Moreover, China's export future trend still exists a lot of uncertainty. From 2012 autumn Canton fair 1 issue of the case, in addition to the electronic electric appliance etc terminal consumer products, machinery, electrical and building materials capital goods trade is not optimistic. GuoLei think, capital goods export estimation will bottom wandering, or periodic weak recovery. Structural improvement is far from the future.
In GuoLei opinion, four quarter this year and next quarter, the economy will be recovery cycle. And QuHongBin is further points out, in view of the external challenges still lives and labor market is still confined, more stable growth recovery is dependent on the continuation of loose policy.
The data collection time for October 12, - 22, October final data will be released on November 1.
(securities market weekly contributors)