September social financing increased to 1.65 trillion off-balance sheet business risk amplification

Relatively optimistic view is that, the financing demand appeared to improve, but there are also analyzes believed that this is a bank through the off-balance sheet business curve avoid risk and asset assessment index.

Each WanMin by reporters from the Beijing

The central bank announced on October 12, the data is like good news and bad news of the game: September new RMB loan is only 623.2 billion yuan, lower than the many market mechanism expected, but the social financing scale is as high as 1.65 trillion yuan, up and link growth are amazing.

It is important to note that, in this 1.65 trillion yuan, new entrust loans, trust loans and not discount bank acceptance bill are up significantly increased. Many the personage inside course of study to the "daily economic news" reporter said, should pay attention to bank's off-balance sheet business hidden risk.

Credit steady growth

On October 12,, according to figures released on September RMB loans increased by 623.2 billion yuan, below market expectations.

"September credit less, the three or four quarter itself loan demand weak some, this is very normal, as well as usual. Throughout the year reached 8.5 trillion yuan no problem." Standard chartered bank (micro Po) economic analysts LiHui told the daily economic news "reporter said.

Citic securities chief macroeconomic analysts ZhuJianFang think, annual credit availability will exceed 7.5 trillion yuan, all year round is expected to more than 80000 one hundred million yuan level.

The first three quarters of this year, the central bank are maintained a steady growth of credit. By late September, the mechanization of credit has reached 6.72 trillion yuan.

In the money supply rise and government each steady growth under the influence of measures, China's official on September manufacturing PMI picks up to 49.8, close to the vicissitude watershed, after four months after fall first picks up.

Even so, the central bank governor zhou xiaochuan articles before, said China's current economic growth of external environment is very severe, the international financial crisis deep influence continued to strengthen, the domestic economy is still greater downward pressure.

For subsequent tool of monetary policy, ZhuJianFang said. "some time ago the central bank liquidity adjustment mainly through reverse repurchase, is expected to the future will still be by lowering the deposit reserve ratio to release the liquidity, do some change." He thought that the central bank interest rate adjustment is still relatively cautious, because the CPI increase may yet picks up, with the United States QE3 introduced the background, our country the rate cut less likely to some.

In addition, 12 the central bank also update the "monetary authorities balance sheet", the table shows, the central bank funding of foreign exchange on August added up to 5.536 billion yuan RMB. Last month the central bank, according to the ministry data released August funding of foreign exchange a decrease of 17.434 billion yuan, due to the full aperture of the funding of foreign exchange by the central bank funding of foreign exchange and financial institutions funding of foreign exchange of two parts, so August financial institutions funding of foreign exchange actual lost 22.969 billion yuan.

An anonymous analysts believe that the central bank funding of foreign exchange are still a small amount of growth, the likelihood is the central bank deposit reserve rate cut didn't one of the reasons.

Off-balance-sheet financing hidden risk

It is important to note that, in September the new loans under the background of less than expected, the month when social financing scale for 1.65 trillion yuan, respectively, compared with the last month and the same period last year more than 404.1 billion yuan and 1.22 trillion yuan, more than the market expected.

Among them, September trust loans increase 202.4 billion yuan, and August trust loans increase of 118 billion. Yuan. September not discount bank acceptance draft an increase of 216.3 billion yuan, up much increase 552.4 billion yuan, and August not discount bank acceptance draft a decrease of 84.4 billion yuan, up less increase 249.6 billion yuan, entrust loan an increase of 144.9 billion yuan, 552.4 billion yuan more than year-on-year increase.

For the above data, relatively optimistic view is that: financing demand appeared to improve. LiHui think, social financing scale appear larger growth is a good phenomenon, "can see quarter effect, bill financing is growing rapidly, it shows that the financing demand is improved, the economy started to stabilises, but does not have a large amplitude rebound".

But the loan channel of financing scale growth also caused the market worries about people.

"Enterprise profitability decline, the bank can loan of the target company is also on the decline, the number of trust loans this form of financing channels appear, (that) the off-balance sheet business scale increase in." Countries put securities institute director ZhouMingJian told the daily economic news "reporter said, September new lending is not much, reason is the Banks' bad loans rate on the rise, will be carefully choose loan mark, on the other hand, Banks and credit out money. Therefore the bank can only take curve way to avoid risk and asset assessment index. The future trust channel, asset management channel even insurance channels are likely.

The bank of China, chairman of the board XiaoGang at present in an editorial pointed out that attention should be paid to the banking financial products outside the watch of the flood, and prompt the possible fraud.

In addition, the third quarter net enterprise bond financing 1.56 trillion yuan, year-on-year increase 718.6 billion yuan, in the social scale of financing in more than 13.3%, an increase of 4.7%.

A focus on local government FaZhai project rating company analyst told reporters that the city of exchange market for debt due to higher interest rates, brokers and institutions such as fund investment intend to larger, but in the interbank market, many large line is still cautious. Along with the policy to relax the local government FaZhai standard, the future city for the quality of the debt will be down, the risk increased RMB exchange rate why continuous jump up (market observation)

Strong upward don't last long two-way fluctuation will be the trend

Our reporter week small garden

On October 12, the RMB against the us dollar exchange rate middle rate to 6.3264, compared with the previous trading day rises considerably 127 basis points, nearly three months a record high since. RMB appreciation again caused a hot debate of the market, analysts pointed out that the strong upward don't last long, the RMB exchange rate flexibility remarkable enhancement, two-way fluctuation will be the future trend, and gradually more reasonable equilibrium level.

Seven years cumulative increase of more than 32%

Since September, the RMB exchange rate change this big. RMB 7 years accumulated rise more than 32% strong upward or don't last long