Many international institutions for the conflict in our country down GDP growth

The conflict "drag" third quarter economic growth

TanZhiJuan

China's GDP growth this year will fall into the "7" era has already become a global consensus.

Recently two big international institutions, the international monetary fund (micro Po) (IMF) and the world bank (micro Po) respectively in its latest report the outlook will this year China's GDP growth down from 8% to 7.8%, and from expected 8.2% to 7.7%. And earlier, the Asian development bank forecast from 8.5% to 7.7% adjustment.

"Is mainly external demand continues to falter and domestic economic growth engine lack of power lead to GDP growth in the first half of this year than expected, which makes us to predicted value revision." To turn down the reason, the Asian development bank chief economist ZhuangJian to the China business news "reporter said.

The debt crisis not retreat, the United States is on the verge of "financial cliff", the two important external factors not sure remaining at the same time, at the moment and add a new variable - by political factors, current sino-japanese economic exchanges to cold. Sino-japanese are the most important trade partner, one of the bilateral trade volume in 2011 is as high as 345 billion dollars, equivalent to 9% of China's GDP.

The present market is expected the third quarter economic growth below 7.5%, hopefully will be the year lows.

External uncertainty spurt

October 10 ~ 14, in Tokyo at the IMF and the world bank annual autumn become political influence economic "crater".

In the industrial and commercial bank of China, bank of China, China construction bank and the agricultural bank of China and China's major bank confirmed absence after this annual meeting, the central bank governor zhou xiaochuan and Treasury secretary XieXuRen weren't able to Paris, but by yi gang, vice governor and vice minister ZhuGuangYao agent to attend.

In 2012, the sino-japanese economic cooperation should be the key in the history of a year. In the end of 2011 both sides strengthen cooperation development after the financial markets, and in June, 2012, 1, to realize the yen yuan trade directly.

The IMF chief raja DE (micro Po) expressed: "they lose the good chance, lost some good thing." IMF Japan's vice President xiao yu is original, said: "if the long-running territorial dispute further deterioration, will give the already reduction of global economy bring the fatal blow."

This kind of influence has took the lead in the sino-japanese appeared between.

In the "purchase island" farce happened after a month, Toyota car sales fell 15%. Mitsubishi motors corporation report, in September the company in China's sales fell 63% year-on-year. From September 17, began, nissan, Toyota, Honda, Mazda car enterprises in China, such as the one part of the factory production. Although now return to work, but according to the analysis of calculating of the institutions, a total shutdown caused by reduction of about 14000 cars, the loss would amount to more than 250 million dollars.

But China is not excellent condition. Jp Morgan economists said, China's economy may have adverse effect, because Japan enterprise may therefore accelerating its investment in China, capacity to other Asian countries transfer.

The Japanese economy news agency news that Japan's convenience store chain family (FamilyMart) is currently scheduled discussion in China plans to open a shop. Clothing manufacturers of corporation in China this year had planned to open about 15 shops, now also is expected to reduce the number of shops. Production of construction machinery parts of the Japanese KYB company also plans to postpone the implementation of this year due to the factory in jiangsu province increase investment.

In 2005 when the scale of the anti-japanese demonstrations in 2006, Japanese investment in China once reduced about 30%. According to the ministry of commerce data, July to September, the Japanese enterprise for Chinese enterprise deal quantity is only 5 pieces, and April to June decreased by 75%.

Fudan university school of economics, vice President of the SunLiJian (micro Po), when being interviewed by the media said that in the trade, manufacturing dominant. "China-japan economic and trade cooling, spare parts supply stagnation, may lead to car and other products in the market has decreased, do not eliminate related products prices in May."

In the east Asian region it is now the time to pull the world economic recovery hope, in the world bank October 8 issued by the east Asia and Pacific economic data monitoring "report in 2012 is expected to grow by 7.2%, significantly higher than other area.

Xiao yu is original, said the opposition between the two countries is by no means simple regional issues, but the global economic worried of fire, IMF issued by the world economic outlook, and did not put the conflicts may worsen the factors into consideration, if the dispute to expand, the region and the world economy will constitute the risk.

East Asian economic situation in Europe debt crisis solution under the background of slow is more important. Although October 8,, the eurozone permanent relief fund - "European stability mechanism" (ESM) get through, boost the market confidence, but two days later, standard &poor's the Spanish long-term credit rating from "BBB +" down to "has" and looking into the negative, reason is still facing Spain public financial risks are increasing. This rating after "junk stage", the Spanish become the next "Greek" a risk.

Low growth reserve policy space

Complex external situation directly let domestic macro-control concern about the trend.

A majority of experts and international institutions forecasts, think that the third quarter GDP in the second quarter may be more low. Third quarter overall economic growth could continue to exploratory bottom to below 7.5%.

"We expected the third quarter data will show demand remains weak, to inventory continues, and the economic recovery is yet to come. Therefore estimate September industrial production year-on-year growth slowed to 8.6% in the third quarter, GDP growth slowed to 7.3% year-on-year. Ubs securities China chief economist WangTao said.

National securities macroscopic analyst Chen wei told the China business news "reporter to interview more pessimistic that growth is likely to only 7%.