September CPI or return to 1 times monetary policy adjustment worry-free

Our reporter ChenYanPeng reports from Beijing

Prices and drop!

On October 12,, Beijing XinFaDe agricultural and sideline products wholesale market, the information statistics department person in charge liu leads to "China times" reporter introduced in September the price movements of agricultural and sideline products: late last month egg prices have dropped to 4.38 yuan/catty, early and price is 4.72 yuan/catty, decreased by 7.2%; White pig weighted average price is down 19.84% year-on-year.

LiuTong think, this decline trend to continue for some time, directly will affect the CPI trend. Last year the way of CPI data, the second half of this year to dropping.

"The food prices fall back, and the influence of September CPI is expected to less than 2% of the year, the price will not appear rebound sharply, overall stabilised." Citic securities chief economist ZhuJianFang October 11 accepting our newspaper reporter to interview said.

ZhuJianFang think, the price decline for monetary policy provides greater adjustment space, at present the prudent monetary policy is necessary to maintain a moderately relaxed posture, expected fourth quarter could still have 1 to 2 times must fall.

However, from the central bank nearly a month of operation view, the macroeconomic regulation and control department more inclined to take reverse repurchase to stabilize the market financing area.

CPI or less than 2%

Recently, shanxi pigs leader WangXianGui irritated, his pig pig amount of livestock on hand number more than 5000 head, but not the market.

WangXianGui forced smile to our reporter said: "last year market good, often with non-local vehicles come to buy, buy a is dozens of head, but this year, a car has come to, last year the market good money, this year and lose all go in."

The national bureau of statistics NBS survey office in shanxi October 10 foreign release data say, pork and no longer be food prices pushed up shanxi CPI "zero". Last year that only let CPI inflated pigs, now finally breaks down.

Food prices for the biggest impact on pork prices, the state council development research center, deputy director of the institute of market economy DengYuSong told reporters, from the current situation of CunLanLiang pigs, pork prices also does not exist rises considerably conditions.

"Since this year, social demand, the price of meat is also causes the decline of the important reasons, the present social demand far did not reach the level of 2010." LiuTong think.

In addition, the ministry of commerce from the monitoring data show that agricultural products price index link or a August somewhat fall after a rise, September food price link or basic and the previous month, vegetables, eggs and price link or are somewhat fall after a rise, especially vegetables after August link the 12.5% increase after, September price declines more obvious.

Although home prices rebound in August to the CPI growth to return to "2" era, but since September, agricultural wholesale price significantly descending, promote the food end prices fell again. In the meantime, under the influence of domestic demand, not food prices up will also dropped slightly, plus September CPI carryover effect, the August also dropped sharply 0.44%.

Bank of communications financial research center senior macroeconomic analyst TangJianWei expected, September CPI is last month will be somewhat fall after a rise, year-on-year rise or fall to 1.8% or so.

According to understand, more agencies to September CPI have made or less than 2% of the forecast; Among them, the galaxy securities predicted minimum, at 1.6%, day letter securities, everbright bank (micro Po), cicc, make travel financial research center are also made the 1.8% prediction.

The ministry of agriculture has released figures, agricultural wholesale price index of total since October two trading day the index to continue downward, oct. 9, at 187.40 points, creating years low level.

Northeast securities macroscopic analysts WangGuoBing optimistic that expected October agricultural prices continue to descending, pork prices also won't obvious rise, therefore, October CPI of link to less than 7-9 months, even does not exclude is zero. The central bank's monetary policy committee is expected to guoqing, CPI in the first half of next year will be lower, is expected to decline further.

The loose monetary policy

Prices fell for monetary policy provides greater adjustment space.

"Combined with other data analysis, the domestic PPI is still negative, at present is still in a stage of inventory, the economy is still in the bottom, the market demand end growth weakness, it is difficult to stimulate the release of liquidity assets price excessive growth." ZhuJianFang says.

HSBC China and China federation of logistics &purchasing previously published September PMI although all have a certain degree of rebound, but still in the bottom of the watershed vicissitude, this shows that China's manufacturing industry growth is still in slow, just slow amplitude stabilised, due to the new order and weak to inventory process than previously expected longer, manufacturing activity remains weak, the Labour market further pressure.

ZhuJianFang thinks, at present the prudent monetary policy is necessary to maintain a moderately relaxed attitude. For the trend of the future policy, he expected fourth quarter could still have 1 to 2 times must fall. WangGuoBing also expressed a similar view: policy adjustment of the space is very large, the fourth quarter still may have one drop quasi or cutting interest rates, northeast securities tend to cut one.

However, there are institutions and experts hold different opinions. Bank of communications financial research center report released recently, interest rates further cuts may further stimulate the real estate market, have accelerated the risk of rising house prices. In addition, the benchmark interest rates fall, Chinese and foreign interest margin narrow may also aggravate capital outflow, the domestic financial stability adverse.

"Over the next year may enter a new round of price rise period, the next few months deposit interest rate cut substantial space is not big." The report says.

And the central bank's macroeconomic regulation and control also began from quantity to control the price regulation, price regulation is mainly repurchase rate, and now central ticket temporarily stop hair, mainly through the reverse repurchase and positive repurchase control. Shanghai is a bank traders says to the reporter, although drop quasi expected to weakening, but the central bank to maintain the capital remains unchanged, as long as the financing area appear fluctuation, reverse repurchase still will help at any time.

On October 9, central