The fed QE3 subsequent negative influence and deal with

September 13, the federal reserve interest rates meeting decided to launch an unlimited perpetual QE3. The fed directly to buy $40 billion a month mortgage backed securities (MBS), until the job market significantly improve so far; At the same time, maintain the current distortion operation (OT) is changeless, and the low interest rate policy extended until the middle of 2015.

The fed QE3 to China's negative influence

And before the fed quantitative easing is different, QE3 influence to our country about the judgment of the great differences exist. Some people believe that the impact is not big, or more good than harm, some people even think QE2 to our country is evil and QE3 is the Gospel. This kind of view is the basis of Europe and the United States quantitative easing can help alleviate the current our country economic and financial faces some difficulties, such as short-term capital outflow, the devaluation of RMB pressure, overseas market demand weakness and the stock market downturn. This kind of judgment too myopia, limited to local, regardless of the developed countries quantitative easing the following influence. In fact, Europe and the United States an unlimited quantitative easing will make global liquidity further flood, the economic prospect unclear makes this liquidity is difficult to get into the real economy, more is stranded in the financial markets, to the financial market with a short fast hin at the same time in the future to leave the risk and problems, capital flow will risk conduction to countries all over the world. Therefore, in the next three to five months, QE3 on our country's temporary benefit will gradually disappear, the negative effect will be appeared gradually and strengthen, to our country's whole influence is more harm than good.

Passive monetary loose blocking monetary environment normalization process. In the past nearly a year, the China's slowdown in capital inflow and outflow appeared signs of the central bank in China by lowering the deposit reserve and open market operation and effectively hedge operation, the central bank balance sheet size not further expanded, the monetary environment gradually returned to normal. Europe and the United States after the quantitative easing is likely to capital inflows, foreign exchange can cause increase funding of basic currency passive launch, monetary policy had to passive loose, weaken the monetary policy autonomy, affects the monetary policy robustness, the fed QE2 during the period of China's monetary management dilemma may reappear.

Imported inflation increased steady growth and the conflict between price stability. In the current round of Europe and the United States before and after the quantitative easing, the global commodity prices to regain uptrend, including gold, oil of goods, price rise strong, especially need to pay attention to is the main food production exporters under the background of rising food prices may be add fuel to the flames. These can form China's imported inflation, boosting down prices rebounded in the current economic growth descending trend caused by the macroeconomic regulation and control of the dilemma, there may be the risk of stagflation.

RMB exchange rate appreciation of passive caused by pressure management dilemma. The dollar's recent appeared large depreciation, QE3 basic declared the past round the end of the dollar rebound stage, and will make the dollar continued to go soft, it is estimated that will last for at least the next quarter, the yuan's rise against the dollar pressure be revealed. If you keep the RMB exchange rate against the dollar relative stability, will suffer strong international pressure; If the RMB exchange rate for the dollar and passive rise, will export produce certain adverse effect.

Risk release process interruption future increase of the seriousness of this problem. The developed countries quantitative easing to a great extent, the risks and crisis costs to the emerging market countries, since last September the debt crisis broke out again on the terms of the influence of emerging market countries, the international financial crisis is likely to emerging market countries crisis and ending. In the past period of time our country economic and financial problems of exposure and risk release process, the financial asset price and real estate price bubble to get bigger relief, the economic structure are also adjustment process, developed countries quantitative easing is likely to cause this process a passive interrupt, our country asset prices will appear LianDongXing rise, risk to cumulative increase the chance.

Third, China's of policy measures

First, strengthen cross-border capital flow monitoring and management. Manage cross-border capital flow, to avoid monetary policy passive loose, strive for greater monetary policy autonomy. The risk of capital flows in the capital inflow stage already exists, must carry on the management of capital inflows, especially to inhibit excessive capital inflows, avoid excessive risk accumulation. In view of the past experience, our country should not only take the increasing foreign exchange reserves, improve the deposit reserve as reservoir strategy, but to take the cross-border capital flow management fronted practices, the flood of liquidity outside plugging in abroad. First of all, when necessary capital inflows to tax, such as shall pay interest free deposit reserve, increase the cost of capital inflows, the smooth and even reduce capital inflows are positive. Secondly, for different types of capital inflow take different degree, ways of management, especially the strict control of short-term speculative capital inflows.

Second, flexible adjustment of monetary policy tools combination. Europe and the United States quantitative easing makes the deposit reserve rate cut space is reduced, but the use of interest rate policy provides more space. If you need to loose monetary, plus the use of interest rate tool, because cut interest rates to a certain extent, can restrain capital inflows, and the impact of rising prices should grow some delay. In the short term, to pay close attention to the central bank funding of foreign exchange of the changes in foreign exchange may have to increase funding of the case, should actively adopt open market operation to hedge.

Third, coping with the challenge of a stable exchange rate. Exchange rate management goal is still to keep the RMB exchange rate stable. In a weaker dollar, can take bright rise real implications of strategy, the RMB against the us dollar can moderate rise, but the effective exchange rate can have certain devaluation, give attention to two or morethings to ease international pressure and export difficulties. At the same time, should actively foreign propaganda China's exchange rate policy management, and calls for current situation of emerging market countries exchange rate the necessity of management, also can part alleviate the appreciation of the renminbi international pressure. In the past period of time emerging market countries face when currency rise with those in China, and RMB exchange rate management realize effectively the stable exchange rate, the stability is not the past simple fixed or gaze at, but shield off most of the external impact rate passive fluctuation, keep the exchange rate autonomy, emerging market countries have reference value.

Fourth, continue to speed up from the international savers to the transformation of international investors. Europe and the United States quantitative easing to a certain extent, support the recent international financial market rebound, and is likely to continue for some time, but