The economist survey: China's economy by short-term investment by tax cuts for a long time

LiXiaoDan KangYi

For the Chinese economy, although the decline than expected time long, but "steady growth" policy appearing also rapidly than expected, therefore, the question now is not whether China's economy "soft landing", but in the economic short period and long period overlapping period should adopt what kind of economic policy. To this, the economist survey given the answer is: short-term depend on investment, especially in infrastructure investment, long-term will continue to deepen reform of the income distribution.

The economist survey by the economic observer launch, every quarter a. Respondents including investment Banks, research institutions and government departments of Chinese authoritative economists. The survey a total of 63 valid questionnaires.

Economic bottom differences

At the bottom of this round of economic decline in where? The questionnaire shows that economists judgment appear bigger differences: 19% of the economists think this economic downturn is the bottom of the fourth quarter, and 33% of the economists think is in the first quarter of next year, and 35% of the economists think is the third quarter, but there are still 7% of the economists think the second quarter has been see bottom, 6% think bottom further.

And securities chief economist SunMingChun thought that, the second quarter economy has seen bottom. Holding the viewpoint and China construction bank senior researcher ZhaoQingMing (micro Po), he thought, "although consumption, industrial added value index did not appear, such as improved significantly, but also did not significantly worse, this is a normal economic recovery process".

HSBC's chief economist QuHongBin (micro Po) think that third quarter is the bottom, ubs chief economist WangTao also think economic third quarter have after all, "with the implementation of policy dynamics strengthened, real estate and construction activities stabilises picks up and some of the industry to inventory, economy will end from the four quarter began to show signs of recovery link." Standard chartered bank (micro Po) greater China region research director Stephen green, think the economy to touch the bottom in the fourth quarter, "began moderate recovery more clear signs will be in the fourth quarter of 2012 and early 2013 appear.

The Chinese academy of social sciences researcher at the institute of economic, the day is economic research institute academic committee chairman zhang shuguang, think the economy in the next year bottom in the first quarter, the national development and reform commission economic research institute economic situation research director WangXiaoGuang think bottom in "in the first half of the second half of next year or the year after next," and galaxy securities chief economist PanXiangDong argue that "economic see bottom also far." ShenYin all the nations (micro Po) securities research institute macro strategy department chief macroscopic analysts LiHuiYong also think the bottom of the time the meeting is longer, "are experiencing the economic downturn, may be the next will be faced with a 3 ~ 5 years of economic bottom, GDP '7 8 next' may be normal."

Bank of communications chief economist even flat to the economic status of the judgment is "low wandering", "the third quarter from domestic economic performance, to see the steady growth policy effect is not obvious, the market cautious wait-and-see sentiment strong, the domestic and foreign demand synchronous slowdown is still the main reason for the weak economy.

For the fourth quarter GDP growth, 59% of the economists think will still maintain at 7% ~ 8%. For the fourth quarter economic influence of the biggest factors, 33% of the economists think is the real economy power shortage, 25% thought that is macroscopic policy change, 22% thought that is the domestic economic development model of obstacles, 19% thought that is foreign political and economic influence. The results also with the current economic downturn main reason for this problem was consistent: the economic structure is not reasonable factors accounted for 32%, the economic crisis and the debt crisis accounted for 31% of the economic cycle laws and policy mistakes each 17%, this shows that the current economic multi-lateral balance, the economic decisions facing "dilemma".

Moderately relaxed monetary

In the steady growth, adjustable structure, control inflation multiple macroeconomic goals, monetary policy can still is the main control means? 37% of the economists think that monetary policy will gradually weakening, the use of monetary policy will also tend to routinization, but there are still 26% of the economists think that monetary policy is still the main method, the space is very large.

For the third quarter monetary policy implementation effect, the questionnaire shows that only 16% of economists think the effect is very good; There are also 16% think the result is bad, And 16% thought that have the effect, but exist lag, relax should be quicker; And 31% think that it's difficult to evaluation. WangTao thought that, the third quarter monetary policy to relax or is too slow, the overall economic recovery have influence. The state information center forecast economic department chief economist ZhuBaoLiang argue that the first three quarters of the monetary effect is pretty good, "the broad money growth rate to maintain at 14%, the corresponding loan scale up to 8.5 trillion yuan, the relaxation of the currency amount is enough."

Drop quasi and to cut interest rates to be money to relax the main signal, 68% of the economists think four quarter will drop quasi once, 32% think will drop quasi two times; 52% of the economists think not to cut interest rates, 45% thought that will cut interest rates again, only 2% think that will cut interest rates twice.

For the fourth quarter monetary policy directions, and the 65% of the economists think will moderate relax, 30% thought that will remain neutral, only 2% think will partial tight. Specific to the fourth quarter, the credit situation, 80% of the economists think will be steady growth, 14% thought that will greatly relaxed.

The Chinese academy of social sciences, director of the division of economic divisions WangTongSan think four quarter monetary policy will remain neutral, and industrial bank chief economist commissar lu (micro Po) think, money will be appropriate to relax, "with the central project continues to advance, credit relaxation is inevitable, if the September economic data is not good, is likely to cut interest rates.

For monetary policy relaxation degree, even flat think only moderately relaxed, "investment growth have rebounded and property market has warmed to credit demand pull role will continue to gradually appear, policy won't considerably relax." Beijing university school of economics, deputy director of the finance lifted with rev. Also said, "should reduce monetary policy optional sex and dramatic ups and downs." "Monetary policy failed to very well adapt to the economic environment, the core reason is money in the modern bank system and state investment stimulus policy under the guidance of endogenous present." Chinese people's university school of economics, vice President of the LiuYuanChun think, the government in