The China economic weekly "reporter about jialong ︱ Shanghai, jiangsu reported
Since this year, "broken net" in bank shares have become common.
By September 25,, in the a-share listed 16 Banks, of the net assets of the decline has reached nine, respectively is bank of communications, Shanghai pudong development bank, hua xia bank, pingan bank, citic bank, bank of Beijing, nanjing bank of China, bank, industrial bank. Already below cost price bank shares why still were investors "nothing", market analysts generally believe that this obviously reflect market for banking actual of non-performing assets of panic.
Citic securities to provide research report will argue that, by the second quarter of this year, the listed bank overdue loans has 80% May move to bad loans. Asset quality problem already from downstream to upstream, the east to the west, export enterprise to other manufacturing diffusion.
Pricewaterhouse coopers to the China economic weekly "offer" in the first half of 2012 China ten big listed bank performance analysis "point out: ten listed Banks in the first half of 2012 the overall bad loans even though more by the end of 2011 dropped by 0.02%, to 0.78%, But the overall balance of non-performing loans than the end of 2011, an increase of 5.3 billion yuan to 356.657 billion yuan.
The ten big listed Banks are: business bank, China construction bank, bank of China, agricultural bank, bank of communications this five large commercial Banks, and China merchants bank, citic bank, Shanghai pudong development bank, industrial bank, minsheng bank this 5 share-holding commercial Banks.
The "double down" situation fear of loss
The banking industry, especially the joint-stock Banks are to sustain many years of bad loan balance, bad loans the "double down" situation lost, this let supervision layer are worried about.
According to the center daily news has been released to see, five large state-owned bank while keep the bad loans dropped index, but in bad loans on the question of balance is not optimistic. In addition to the agricultural bank and construction bank besides, the bank of China, industry and commerce bank and bank of communications of bad loan balance all appeared rise.
"Our main business in the Yangtze river delta, it can be said that obviously felt the non-performing loan looked up, this also is banking common feel wind control pressure. Bank of communications chief economist even flat told the China economic weekly ", "the international and domestic economic descending, and other comprehensive factors of the current situation of non-performing bank accumulated in the short term is difficult to reverse, may also form a inflection point, this needs the bank pay close attention to enterprise dynamic prevent non-performing chain reaction."
Compared with the state-owned Banks, joint-stock commercial Banks because in the past few years the loan expansion relatively fast, if the quality of loans in the first half also under severe test, already became the worst-hit areas. In addition to China merchants bank and proceedings flat beyond, minsheng bank, and peace, bank, Shanghai pudong development bank, industrial bank non-performing loans in the first half of the balance and defect rate are "double rise", not only such, measure the future trend of the defect rate by bank's internal as "problem assets" overdue loan balance has rapid growth.
"We sample analysis of ten listed bank, in the first half of 2012 overdue loan balance achieves 489 billion yuan, more than the end of 2011 increased by 30%. The bank's overall overdue loans also relatively proceedings rose by 0.22% to 1.28%. Pricewaterhousecoopers China banking and capital marketing competent partner LiangGuoWei told the China economic weekly ", "overdue loans of the rapid increase, to the quality of assets formed pressure. The current economic situation of uncertainty, overdue loans at any time are likely to turn into bad loans.
At the press interview, the majority of the industry insiders believe that the bank non-performing again looked up and not short-term phenomenon, and may be a trend began. ShenYin all the nations (micro Po) securities research institute chief macroscopic analysts LiHuiYong even think, if the Chinese economy in three to five years of adjustment, non-performing inevitable is a significant exposure process, but what will rise into what position, he himself didn't spectrum.
New and old industry crisis attacks long triangle
The bad loans rally, to a great extent, and the jiangsu and zhejiang provinces area enterprise "have a fracture" relevant.
Bank of communications chief risk officer YangDongPing told the China economic weekly ":" we bad loans in the first half of 22.8 billion yuan, the defect rate 0.82%, although has dropped, but bad loans increased by 887 million yuan, including from wenzhou's non-performing loans is more than 800 million yuan."
Reporter in the Shanghai pudong development bank, ningbo bank, pingan bank in the interview, the executives of the defect rate rise blamed on to small and medium-sized enterprises and the private economy to the characteristics of "wenzhou factors". However, the actual situation and have no imagination of so simple.
"The long triangle and western region is ten listed Banks non-performing loans in the first half of 2012 the most areas. Among them, Yangtze river delta region of the non-performing loan balance proceedings is increased by 21%, the region's assets quality worrying." Pricewaterhousecoopers (PWC) China's financial services partners HeShuZhen told the China economic weekly ".
Traffic bank non-performing loan problem in addition to from the wholesale, manufacturing primarily wenzhou to emerging industries of jiangsu wuxi is key.
Jiang SuHui Aaron solar energy technology co., LTD., chairman of the board CaiJiBo told the China economic weekly ":" photovoltaic industry can be said is put on long, soul-stirring malignant competition. After the financial crisis, Europe and America to pv demand increment slowed, especially in the United States, the European Union the formation of China's capacity close situation, finally make a lot of photovoltaic enterprise realize, although the future is bright, but less than dawn support."
Emerging personal business risk has intensified
If with the long triangle enterprise as a representative of export-oriented economy to bank caused non-performing loan surge "what is done cannot be undone", then include consumer loans and credit card business, the personal business also let bank wind control department cannot be at ease.
An anonymous a joint stock commercial bank credit card center person in charge told the China economic weekly ":" due to the influence of interest rate marketization reform, enterprise that piece of loan interest margin accounts for income than might be reduced gradually, so the head office has been