324 billion reverse repurchase to continue offering a prudent monetary relax when broken bureau

Our reporter TangWei reports from Beijing

On October 11, the Brazilian central bank announced by 25 basis points to 7.25%, the central bank to cut interest rates for the continuous 10th to cut interest rates. But the bank of Korea also decided to cut interest rates by 0.25% to 2.75%. And the federal reserve had launched QE3, the ECB direct currency trading (OMT) buy debt plan, and the bank of Japan to expand 10 trillion quantitative easing scale, global central bank seemed enter "monetary loose period".

But the Chinese central bank monetary policy is to relax more cautious, in repeated white hope "relax" period, only mild cut deposit quasi rate, and more to rely on the open market operation to cope with the international balance of payments surplus caused by the narrow liquidity in reducing problems. The 2006-2008 and 2010-2011 period, policy tightening on quasi rate greatly raised formed a sharp contrast.

Although into a "liquidity trap", monetary policy more considered useless, decision-making are also more likely to prudent monetary policy to relax, only to maintain the scale of the reverse repurchase, and this cautious when the bureau broken?

And note a lot of liquidity

In this year's monetary policy relaxation process, open market operation is always the primary tool, save quasi rate cut relatively few times. In order to deal with the international balance of payments surplus decline, the people's bank first through the open market operation, make central ticket due to inject liquidity, with central ticket due to reduce, the people's bank cut in three times with quasi rate, to reverse repurchase way injected liquidity.

The people's bank on October 12, and totaling 59 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operation. And on October 9, the central bank has just launched two deadline reverse repurchase operation, including 7 days and 28 day period, the volume of trade is 165 billion yuan respectively, 100 billion yuan, a total of 265 billion yuan, and single day in the history of seeds.

The central bank such large-scale reverse repurchase quantity some accident, but do not seem to beyond the market capacity.

After National Day long vacation to cope with funds provision for pressure, and considering the after the National Day routine capture puts fund pressure, the central bank in the open market has increased the 28 day period reverse repurchase varieties of operation dynamics, and reduces the period of seven days the proportion of varieties.

Along with the National Day long vacation ended, the seven days period varieties also gradually regression, it serves to show central bank in reverse repurchase varieties choice more flexible.

More than the market expected the interest rate is inverse buy-back "unshakable". On October 9, that period, 7 days period reverse repurchase again to return to open market, the operation quantity for 165 billion, but the interest rate "ten percent unchanged" sixth landed in the 3.35% level; 28 day period volume for 100 billion yuan, the interest rates fall at 3.60% level.

And on October 10, the inter-bank market repo rate each time all sharply. Among them, the overnight buyback falling interest rates 71 basis points to 2.6500%, the lowest since August 1. And seven days of repurchase rates also drop 61 basis points to 3.1674%, 14 days varieties decline 52 basis points to 3.44%. On October 11,, Shanghai bank inter-bank loan interest rates (Shibor) mostly short-term varieties continued to weaken, the overnight rate fell by 20.25 percentage points to 2.4475%; Seven days interest rate rise to 3.1608%; 14 days interest rates fell 9.91 basis points to 3.3742%; 1 month period interest rates fell by 17.4 percentage points to 3.6752%.

There are primary market interest rates and secondary fuchsia phenomenon, 7 days period market interest rates 3.16% lower than reverse repurchase rate 3.35%, explain the financing area or more relaxed.

But on October 12, 12 billion yuan of 7 days period reverse repurchase, the interest rates still seventh firmly locked in the 3.35%. "7 days 3.35%, 14 days 3.45%, period is short, the interest rate is high, a certain extent increase the burden of the bank. A joint-stock bank staff explained.

But Goldman sachs gao hua thinks, in recent months deposit quasi rate is not cut, shows that people's bank may be unwilling to guide the financing cost greatly decreased, on average, reverse repurchase rates was 3.5%, far higher than the reserve interest rates, so for the commercial Banks to produce the "negative interest margin". Static estimation shows that reserve release (if save quasi rate cut by substitute the interbank lending market borrowed will lead to borrowers marginal financing cost down about 1.8%.

In fact, interbank lending rates after June and July after the fall, from the beginning of August rise slightly, has recently more than the benchmark deposit rate. But small Banks could be affected by the bigger, because their lending business depends more on wholesale finance rather than deposit.

Careful monetary policy when broken bureau

People's bank in recent monetary policy implementation report stressed that will steadily price type tool as the foundation of the monetary policy framework. And save more accurate rate by market think is relaxed pointer, if save quasi rate adjustment is "dinner" words, the reverse repurchase is usually as "snack".

Foreign exchange deposit funding of the accuracy is an important indicator of the adjustment. But recent global implementation of the "monetary loose tide", make people's bank more careful, need to evaluate the funding of the China foreign exchange, the effect of this increase the drop quasi uncertainty. Many institutions that if funding of foreign exchange of new scale continuous downturn, four quarter will use save quasi rate tools.

But China merchants securities (micro Po) prediction, September new funding of foreign exchange will not appear negative growth. "The appreciation of the renminbi is expected to appear small picks up, but is still in devaluation expected interval, reflect the international capital careful look at RMB appreciation of future space. But the international capital into China Hong Kong continues to improve, and international capital continue to flow into emerging countries and regions, India the fourth consecutive month rise, South Korea in August after high impact on September into scale back slightly, and at the same time, these areas are the stock index rose, the Indian stock index or the highest 7.6%. Therefore, comprehensive each index of the situation, the funding of September foreign exchange a month earlier the probability of better larger. China merchants securities analysts XieYaXuan think.

"Last year since December three times must deposit rate cut, more than trade